Age of Paradox [antikvár]

PREFACE For the past ten years, Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) has been analysing and debating ongoing developments in the energy world. A solid understanding of energy markets, their main players and the impact of government policies is crucial in these debates. The development of European gas and electricity markets in particular, including the impacts of regulation and climate change policies on such markets, has been one of the core themes on the research agenda. Although the inroads made by renewables on traditional energy markets over the past ten years is often deemed too modest, they have nonetheless radically changed the context of EU energy policy-making. In ten years' time, the yardstick against which new energy investments are measured has changed significantly. With the energy ship slowly changing course, the energy trilemma of security of supply, reasonable prices and the environment, is posing new questions, some of which will still go unanswered. Although countries' energy mixes were slowly converging in the past decades, we now observe more diverging developments, at least among the OECD countries, depending on their resource base, financial strength and strategic preferences. Energy globalisation remains an incomplete puzzle. In an attempt to stay ahead of the curve in the energy and climate developments, CIEP began to develop possible future storylines of energy. Through the years, these storylines have helped to develop antennae for markets and policies beyond the day-to-day or even year-to-year developments. Moreover, they have helped us to learn to think about views and interests from various capitals around the world. The energy strategy game board certainly looks different from various vantage points; what's more, over the past decade we have witnessed the emergence of new powerful players. In the ten years of CIEP existence, the energy game has changed almost beyond recognition in terms of players, fuels, trade and prices, all of which is linked in some way or other. In this work, CIEP traditions in the geopolitics of energy is a leading theme as we explore the implications of the changes of the past ten years on energy strategies towards the end of the current decade. Some of the narratives present an uneasy future and strategic dilemma's which will not be easily solved. The comforting part is that storylines tend to be simply that: they serve as mirrors of what might come if power is not balanced, if players do not adapt strategies, if economies fail to adjust or if technologies do not create new ventures. We have taken the CIEP studies and debates of the past ten years as a point of departure and run with them into the future. In ten years' time we hope to be proven completely wrong. Coby van der Linde