An Introduction to The Philosophy of Induction and Probability [antikvár]

PREFACE The purpose of this book is to introduce the reader to philosophical issues and arguments about probability and induction, not to survey the past and present range of those issues and arguments. The text is therefore highly selective both in the topics and authors that it discusses and also in the points that it makes about them. It seeks to engage the reader's interest by presenting a coherent and readily intelligible picture of the field, with due regard to the depth and difficulty of the fundamental philosophical issues, rather than to aim at a more comprehensive and encyclopaedic type of treatment (which might also be more superficial). And it economizes as much as possible in the use of mathematical symbolism, the statement of mathematical results and the derivation of statistical algorithms, because its concern is with the philosophical issues rather than with the mathematical ones. In trying to show how strong or how weak a particular philosophical theory really is I have not hesitated to include new arguments where they seem to be needed, and to exclude familiar ones where they seem to be of little value. No doubt others might wish to distribute their emphases differently. But that is inevitable in philosophy. In any case my overall purpose is not to make converts, but to excite interest by the exploration and comparison of alternative options. For those who then wish to go further the footnotes include relevant bibliographical suggestions. I have adopted a broadly historical approach in the first chapter, in order to show how the central problems developed. The other five chapters seek to impose a clarificatory structure on the consideration of those problems. In order to assist understanding, each section is preceded by a summary of its contents. But, as newcomers to philosophy may need to be reminded, the nature of philosophical argument makes it impossible for reading such summaries to be a worthwhile substitute for reading the text. Also, for the benefit of those new to the subject, I have included in the footnotes some brief biographical notes in