Bővebb ismertető
Political transitions to democracy have become a fashionable subject for various investigations nowadays. Rightly so. There are basically two types of historical political development. Political systems normally show somé kind of natural or forced cquilibrium. Socially this normál, long lasting accomodation can foster self-reproducing, stagnating or slowly accumulating patterns that in the long run threaten the basic features of a political system. In normál times people live with accepted and socialized systems of integrating values, be they traditional, religious or secularized, or be they institutionally conditioned and reinforced, as in modern times. The other state of political life however, is that of a rapidly changing political environment, the very birth of new institutions, the creation of new (inter)dependencies, the genesis of new qualities, be they anything disclaiming the existing, when history gets momentum. This can be a dramatic collapse of the „Old Régime" - as in a revolution or a peaceful change of system - as in the changing of the guard. We have experienced mostly the latter in Eastern Europe: in the Soviet Union and in a number of countries of the former „Eastern Bloc". At the same time this seems both a natural and a very unnatural process. It is both evident and absurd. It is an adventure into the unknown as well as a „déjá vu"-type appearance of older social patterns already experienced. And it is undoubtedly a socially and scientifically exciting period of history searching for a new equilibrium. Political transitions can and must be studied. The laboratory of history gives exceptional insights into otherwise concealed bondings and instincts of society. Empirical facts of formerly hidden structures come to the surface, old camouflage tactics become trifling mediocrities, seven-sealed (top) secrets become petty fusses, informál procedures turn into old-fashioned curiosities. Somé hidden facts do come forth as really shocking relevations, but most of them are intellectually exciting, concieved and appreciated only by those who let themselves be taken to the yet unknown realm of social paradigms, paradigms described by new magic words, invented by the masters of social witchcraft, social scientists, political consultanst or other brands of unreliable sorcerers. Trial and error - this ancient means by which people attempt to invent institutions - makes transitons unstable and emotionally complex. Strategic actions play a role not only in the scientific calculation of political outcomes, but in the real outcomes of the political ehess games, of the real political infights as well.