Perspectives of Planning [antikvár]

The influence of technology in relation to the development of the economy and of society has been a concern of OECD for somé years and particular attention has been given to the conditions which favour or discourage technological innovation. Aspects of this problem which are proving of increasing interest to the Member countries include those of the management of large and complex technological systems and the desirability of assessing technological trends through long-range forecasting. A detailed survey of the methods of technological forecasting published by the Organisation has been widely discussed both in industrial and in governmental circles, not only in the OECD area but throughout the industrialised countries of the world. In continuation of this work OECD and its Science Policy Committee decided to organise discussion on forecasting and planning techniques between a limited number of outstanding scientists who had contributed to the development of new concepts in the field or who, as practitioners of such planning and forecasting, had növel and relevant experience to share. Somé twenty leaders in the field were therefore invited to contribute papers on their work and methods and, once these had been received, to meet together to discuss the development and significance of the various approaches. It was hoped in this way to make available through a publication much experience and new thinking which might be of use eventually to the governments of the Member countries, their experts and industrialists. The discussion took place from 27th October to 2nd November at the Villa Serbelloni, Bellagio, Italy which had been generously made available by the trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation to whom we are particularly grateful. The papers and discussion represented a wide and practical experience of planning and forecasting methods on topics and situations in which technological, social, economic and management have an important role, and interacted the one with the other. It is apparent that a corpus of knowledge is developing rapidly on these wider aspects of planning, that both technological and social forecasting are desirable, but that as yet there is no generál agreement as to the validity of individual methods and techniques. There was, however, a generál conviction that the evolving techniques of planning and forecasting have a deep significance in attacking many of the problems now facing our society, and that individual and social aspects must be given greater weight.