Prices Of Raw Materials In The Eighties: A Relative Stabilization Or A Repetition Of The Recent Past? [antikvár]

Introduction After some twenty years of nearly unchanged current prices of raw materials (and even of certain decline of their relative prices), the trend underwent a dramatic change beginning with late 1972. EVen if we leave aside the special case of oil, "The Economist" index of industrial raw material prices doubled in 1974 comparison with 1971. Subsequent deep recession in the West resulted, in turn, in a steep decline in industrial raw material prices (see also graph 1 where another index has been used). These changes were of unprecedented magnitude in history of the world economy. During neeirly 120 years of existence of "The Economist" Index of Commodity Prices, the prices have never risen that much as in 1973 in relation to 1972. Neither have they been growing so fast as in 1972-1974 in any three-year period. The same goes for the fall of prices in 1975 in comparison to 1974. line discussion on the causes of the raw material's boom of the 70s is not yet over, and it is doubtful whether emy reasonable concurrence of views on the subject in question will ever be achieved. Leaving the causes aside, the consequences of these unprecedented price changes contributed considerably to the destabilization of the world economy. Although shortages and price increases affected most strongly the industrialized market economies, their impact was felt in every subsystem of the world economy. The developments in the 70s reawekened an interest in the problem of raw material prices and meirket organization. Not a single country participating in the international division of labour can afford to be indifferent to the question whether such an important factor of economic growth is characterized by a relative stability of price trends or