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PROBABILITY IN QUANTUM MECHANICS1
From about the beginning of the twentieth century experimental physics
amassed an impressive array of strange phenomena which demonstrated
the inadequacy of classical physics. The attempts to discover a theoret-
ical structure for the new phenomena led at first to a confusion in which
it appeared that light, and electrons, behaved sometimes like waves and
sometimes like particles. This apparent inconsistency was completely
resolved in 1926 and 1927 in the theory called quantum mechanics. The
new theory asserts that there are experiments for which the exact out-
come is fundamentally unpredictable and that in these cases one has to
be satisfied with computing probabilities of various outcomes. But far
more fundamental was the discovery that in nature the laws of com-
bining probabilities were not those of the classical probability theory of
Laplace. The quantum-mechanical laws of the physical world approach
very closely the laws of Laplace as the size of the objects involved in the
experiments increases. Therefore, the laws of probabilities which are
conventionally applied are quite satisfactory in analyzing the behavior
of the roulette wheel but not the behavior of a single electron or a single
photon of light.
A Conceptual Experiment. The concept of probability is not
altered in quantum mechanics. When we say the probability of a certain
outcome of an experiment is p, we mean the conventional thing, i.e., that
if the experiment is repeated many times, one expects that the fraction
of those which give the outcome in question is roughly p. We shall not be
at all concerned with analyzing or defining this concept in more detail;
for no departure from the concept used in classical statistics is required.
What is changed, and changed radically, is the method of calculating
probabilities. The effect of this change is greatest when dealing with
objects of atomic dimensions. For this reason we shall illustrate the
laws of quantum mechanics by describing the results to be expected in
some conceptual experiments dealing with a single electron.
Our imaginary experiment is illustrated in Fig. 1-1. At A we have
a source of electrons S. The electrons at S all have the same energy
1 Much of the material appearing in this chapter was originally presented as a
lecture by R.P. Feynman and published as "The Concept of Probability in Quan-
tum Mechanics" in the Second Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and
robabihty, University of California Press, Berkeley, Calif., pp. 533-541, 195]