Technological Forecasting in Perspective [antikvár]

PREFACE The influence of technological advance is becoming ever more important in many sectors of national activity. While it has until now been most striking in industry and defence, technology is gradually invading many other sectors, such as education, and its direction is becoming a major pre-occupation of governments as well as of priváté enterprise. It is important to foresee as clearly as may be possible, the nature and probable impact of a rapidly growing technology. This is to somé degree possible because of the still considerable time which must elapse between the discovery of new knowledge through fundamental research and its application in technology. Technological forecasting which has developed gradually since the end of World War II, attempts to provide somé indication of future trends. It is important for two main reasons. Firstly, the rapid growth of opportunity offered by the many advances in science and technology necessitates a high selectivity on the part of the decisionmaker both at the level of the individual firm and on a national scale. Choice between alternative paths may make all the diíference in competitive performance. But there is a second and more important reason why technological forecasting is necessary. Science and technology are increasingly recognised as influences in the transformation of society and governments must therefore strive to foresee the impacts which technological developments are likely to have on future society and to guide the application of new knowledge in the attainment of national goals. Recognition of the possibility of planning for future options by guiding technological development along alternative paths in an economic, social and political context presents both a stimulus and a challenge to the policy-maker. In view of these possibilities, only now gradually becoming visible, OECD decided to undertake a " state of the art" study of technological forecasting. Dr. E. Jantsch, who carried out this investigation, presents in this volume a survey of the techniques and trends of technological forecasting. In this task he has been greatly assisted by many executives and experts in the Member countries as well as specialists in the various fields of science policy. It is hoped that the compilation will be of value to a wide circle of industrialists and govemment policy-makers. Thorkil Kristensen. Secretary-General Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.