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The Economic Time Bomb
F
.or the first time in many years, I feel a sense of immediate danger about the economy.
I believe the prosperity we've enjoyed in the 1980s is about to end.
The economy is threatened by three grave problems left over from the turbulent 1970s. These problems were pushed into the background by the prosperity of the 1980s, but they weren't solved. They've been growing more dangerous all the while— ticking away like a time bomb.
Most likely, the three problems will begin to erupt when the next recession arrives—probably in 1989 or 1990. I expect that recession to be severe, and I expect it to revive the destructive pattern of the 1970s—when recessions alternated with inflation that rose to 6%, 12%, and finally 15% at the peak in 1980.
But history never repeats itself too neatly. The troubles of the 1990s will unfold in their own way.
The next decade could be considerably more chaotic than the 1970s, because the economy is already suffering so much of the