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Preface
One of the most noteworthy developments in economics in the past decade has been the intense interest in technological change. No single reason accounts for the attention this topic has received, a number of related factors all being important. First, there has been a growing awareness that our nation's rate of economic growth depends heavily on our rate of technological change. Second, continued international tensions have made it painfully obvious that our national security depends on the output of our military research and development effort, which now costs the Department of Defense alone about $7 billion per year. Third, economists and others are coming to realize the full importance of competition through new products and processes rather than direct price competition. Fourth, some observers have asserted that "automation" will lead to widespread unemployment and to the necessity to retrain large segments of the labor force. Fifth, there has been considerable concern over the adequacy and efficiency of our national policies toward science and technology.
We have a long way to go before a satisfactory understanding of the economics of technological change is achieved, but the situation is vastly improved over that which prevailed a decade or so ago, when the subject was almost totally unexplored. Because of the work carried out in recent years, our knowledge of the subject has progressed very substantially. This book presents an overview and interpretation of this new and rapidly growing field. Drawing on recent economic studies, as well as on relevant work in the other social sciences, management, and operations research, I have set out to describe and analyze the way in which new processes and products are created and assimilated, and to investigate the public and private policy issues involved. At present, no book of comparable scope exists, this being the only book that is concerned with both public and private policy issues, with both military and a wide range of civilian policy issues, with both analysis and policy, and with both what is customarily called economics and relevant parts of related disciplines. It is a companion to my Industrial Research and Technological Innovation (Norton, 1968), which describes in detail the econometric studies that I have carried out in this area. The two books are complementary, the other being* confined to my own studies and being directed at an advanced professional audience, this one