The Great Depression Ahead [antikvár]

PROLOGUE Simple Principles Drive Complex Change ARE YOU PREPARED for the next great crash ahead? Wouldn't it be nice to be able to predict the key economic trends that will impact your life, your business, and your investments over the rest of your lifetime? Of course we would like to be able to predict all of these trends and have greater predictability and control over our lives. But what would any reputable economist tell you? No one can predict any major events or trends past the next election or Federal Reserve policy change, as we live in an ever-changing world with increasing complexity. "If a butterfly flaps its wings in Tokyo, we could get a hurricane in the Caribbean!" That's their interpretation of "complexity theory"—which misses the point of how that new theory actually increases the predictability of chaotic processes. Simple common sense would also tell you otherwise. Life clearly has become more complex over modern human history, yet we have learned to predict more events in all areas of life. As a result, our standard of living has gone up while our level of risk has actually gone down over time. When people complain about how complex, unpredictable, stressful, and risky life seems to be getting, I always ask them to go back to the 1930s, the Great Plague of the mid-1300s, the Dark Ages, the last Ice Age, or almost any time in the past. Life was shorter, more brutal, and less predictable as a general rule the further you go back in history! For another, relatively recent example, try imagining that you are a secretary in the TV series Mad Men, depicting office life in the 1950s.