The New Gulf [antikvár]

PREFACE Imagine it is 2030. . . . Tlie six Arabian states that are the subject of this boolc - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE - have a combined population in excess of 80 million people, more than double the 2008 figure. JMost live on, or near, Arabia's east and west coasts. An unbroken chain of development extends from Ra's al-Khaimah along the Gulf littoral to the Iraqi border and down much of Arabia's 1,600 km Red Sea coastline from the Gulf of Aqaba to Jizan. Arabia in 2030 has eight cities with more than five million residents. Riyadh, the largest, has more than 10 million. Hydrocarbons continue to drive the Gulf economy. But its leaders have long realized that the least productive use of Arabia's oil was sending it in a crude form to be burned in foreign cars and power stations. Most is processed before export in the world's largest refinery network. Gulf gas is converted into plastics or used to fuel heavy industries, electricity plants and water desalinators. The Gulf, nevertheless, remains the world's principal energy supplier. The Gulf Six produce 25 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil, more than 20 percent of the world total, compared with some 16 million b/d in 2007. Gulf gas accounts for one-fifth of world consumption. Sources of oil outside the Gulf are rapidly depleting. World demand continues to grow. But no one worries about energy shortages. The Gulf has enough to meet every contingency for at least another century. And despite fears of relentless price increases, oil in 2030 is in real terms no costlier than in 2008. In 2030, the Gulf Six have a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of US$2 trillion at 2007 prices, three times the figure recorded 25 years earlier. This makes the region the sixth-largest economy in the world after China, the US, the EU, Japan and India. Oil and gas were behind the boom that has transformed Arabia since oil prices rose to more than US$30 a barrel in 2004. But energy accounts for a fraction of the region's economy. Services are the most important source of income and jobs. Logistics is the biggest employer of Arabians and great highways cross the peninsula from east to west and from north to south. The rail link between Jeddah on the Red Sea and Dammam on the Gulf is one of the busiest on earth. Income from tourism and travel has ovenaken earnings from oil and gas. In 2030, more than 150 million foreigners will travel to the Gulf. Nearly 20 million pilgrims will visit the Muslim Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina which are linked by trains travelling at up to 800 km/h. Gulf airports handle 400 million passengers a year. Gulf towns support