The Role and Effectiveness of Theories of Decision in Practice [antikvár]

This volume reports on the first conference to be held, under NATO auspices, which has dealt with decision theory and, specifically, with the problems of applying decision theory. The aims of the conference were stated, in July 1972, as follows: (i) to ascertain the role of various theories of decision as aids to prescriptively oriented decision analysis, both with respect to the decisions for which the analysis is carried out and with respect to the decisions made in the analysis itself; (ii) to ascertain if a single coherent theory of decision might be evolved to these ends; (iii) to identify problems of application of various theories of decision in a variety of situations, and to suggest steps which might resolve these; (iv) to identify inadequacies of such theories and to suggest steps needed to correct or develop such theories with a view to application. The reader can judge for himself the extent to which these aims were met and can compare his views with those expressed in a summing up in the final session of Conference. Clearly the aim was ambitious, but this was deliberate and played a part in structuring the conference. The planning stage took two years, and over that period much help has been given to the Scientific Directors. The final phase has been greatly simplified by the experience of our publishers in issuing such proceedings as this, and we follow many NATO Conference Directors in our appreciation of their support. In the acknowledgements which follow, some names may have been inadvertently omitted, and so the first acknowledgement is to all with whom we have communicated over the long gestation period. The Advisory Panel on Operational Research (now superceded by the Special Programme Panel on Systems Science) commented on and criticised early proposals and finally recommended to the Science Committee that such a conference be included in the 1973 programme. We acknowledge the privilege of being asked to act as Scientific Directors. Dr B. A. Bayraktar, Scientific Affairs Division, NATO, provided the link with the Panel and with the Science Committee in the many administrative matters that