The World in 1991 [antikvár]

flflif beyond the start of 1991, and the world's economy presents Ll/l/fl a happier sight. With inflation squeezed out by a mild recession, the rich countries will soon be within hailing distance of another stretch of economic growthperhaps as strong again as the past eight years of expansion that have added 30% to their real wealth.Look beyond the middle of 1991, and the various bits of a Middle East peace will start to be put indiscordantplace. That explosive part of the world will end up more pro-western and slightly nearer democracy than it was before. And the lesson will have been taught once more: Country A cannot swallow Country B and get away with it. So 1991 will be a bad year for dictators: following Saddam Hussein to oblivion should be Deng Xiaoping and his ancient Chinese reactionaries, Fidel Castro (the last Stalinist in power) and an assortment of unpleasant Africans.Look to the end of 1991, and this slightly better world will have a shadow over it: human misery, social collapse and the problems of illegitimate government will be yet greater in the Soviet Union than they are now. Mother Russia may, literally, be starving. The Soviet Union in chaos will be the greatest threat throughout next year, to both its own population and its neighbours. But one thing is clear: looking, as it does, daily more like a third-world country, its old superpower status is gone for our generation.The consequence is straightforward. The United States will remain unchallenged as the single world leader. Top dog, if for no other reason, from lack of competition. It is all the more disturbing, therefore, that the country's finances (national and corporate) should be in such a mess, a mess which will prove uncomfortable for much of next year. One blessing in 1991: there need be no elections in the world's five largest economies, and so the reality of working with American leadership will not be challenged from the soapbox. This is just as well. To meet its 1992 deadlines, Europe's common market needs to concentrate not on the divisive idealism of political union but on mundane matters such as removing trade barriers and making its members obey the club rules.There will be bankruptcies galore in 1991 (especially in Japan) and rising unemployment. But don't confuse this with economic depression. None of our correspondents sees cause for a startling economic failure. Indeed next year there will be more people in work than ever before, and they will be better educated (even in under-educated Britain), better balanced between the sexes, more liberal and more international than their rather too longstanding political leaders will recognise.For the wealthy "me" generation, science will soon provide the ultimate introspection: genetic testing. Many ethical problems here: not just, who am I? but, how could I engineer some improvements? Sex determination, genetic alteration, genetic testing along with a job applicationor a marriage licencemay be among 1991's new horrors. Those horrors and opportunities are the stuff of The World in 1991, which is published in nine languages and should have a worldwide readership of 1.1m. Its guesses will not all be right but they are informed and, I hope, a good read.Dudley FishburnEditorTHE WORLD IN 1991 5