Theorists of Economic Growth from David Hume to the Present [antikvár]

Preface This is a book about theories of economic growth and the men and women who formulated them. It is also about the vicissitudes of the world economy over the past two and a half centuries as they helped shape those theories. And it has something to say about the future—the future of the world economy, of political economy, and of public policy. Thus, it begins in the middle of the eighteenth century with David Hume and ends with a look into the next century. The first three parts discuss chronologically the contributions of the major thinkers who have shaped the evolution of theories of economic growth. The fourth part assesses some unresolved questions in growth theory and sets out a policy agenda that will not only determine the course of the world economy but also will influence profoundly the issue of war or peace in the several generations ahead. An introductory chapter provides a more detailed overview of the book and an exposition of the analytic approach brought to bear. This book was written with an acute sense of the danger of the undertaking. For an economist, a review of the work of some of his most distinguished predecessors and contemporaries is an engaging exercise. The task proved so seductive to Joseph Schumpeter that he never got around to the synthesis of dynamic economics he had in mind when he began what proved to be nine years of labor on his History of Economic Analysis. Even at that, the historical section of the book was uncompleted when he died. My purpose in entering this beguiling but somewhat treacherous terrain is, at once, narrower than Schumpeter's and wider. It deals with fewer economists, but more economic history, and with some major present and foreseeable issues of public policy, as well. I had long been planning a final, substantial work on economic growth, but the proximate impetus to begin and the ultimate structure of the book were affected by an experience that may be worth recording. It runs counter to a view held by many in the academic worid that undergraduate teaching and research are competing rather than mutually reinforcing. During the academic year 1983-84 I was invited to teach an upper-level seminar in Plan II at the University of Texas. Plan II is a vital liberal arts enclave—some 600 extremely talented undergraduate students in a university of more than 45,000—granted great flexibility but held to rigorous standards. I was asked to teach on a topic of my own choice. In a lighthearted mood, I created a course entitled "Historical Insights into the Present State of the World Economy." I built the course around the following five questions: 1. Are we in the second, third, fourth, or fifth Industrial Revolution? 2. Are we in the Fifth Kondratieff Upswing or Fourth Kondratieff Downswing? 3. Will the gap between the rich and the poor nations narrow or widen?