Trends and Cycles in Economic Activity [antikvár]

While this book was written for readers interested in studying the general area of dynamic economics, the writer also incorporated into the book the product of some of his more recent research efforts (perhaps pri- marily in Chapter 8 and in the Appendix to Part 3, but also in Part 2). However, all along he was aware of the danger that uncontrolled inclina- tions of this type might impair the generality of the discussion, and he tried his best to minimize this danger. The dual problem of the qualitative adequacy and of the quantitative sufficiency of technological and organizational improvements has, to some extent, been placed in the foreground of the argument. In the author's thinking, at least, this dual problem has stayed in the foreground. By qualitatively adequate improvements we shall here mean improvements the laborsaving, capital-saving, and land-saving, effects of which stand in a desirable relation to one another. Sustained economic growth re- quires qualitative adequacy as well as quantitative sufficiency of tech- nological and organizational improvements» that is, of new skills. This may be considered the main theme of the book (although we shall not lose sight of the price-behavior requirements and the resource-mobility requirements of sustained growth). An attempt will also be made to gauge the ability of improvements to offset the consequences of differential factor supplies (relative scarcities in factors of production). The criteria for this appraisal will be devel- oped in Chapter 8, and quantitative materials will be presented in the Appendix to Part 3. The data relate chiefly to trends in the average pro- ductivity of capital, in distributive shares and in the rate of return from investment. The central analytical structure of the book is first sketched in Part 2, and is further elaborated subsequently. Part 1 is mainly concerned with research methods and with empirical findings that have resulted from these, but it includes also interpretation and appraisal. Discussions and appraisals of research methods will, however, be found in later sections of the book, too (e.g., in Chapter 12).